I feel dirty

One of my dissertation students is conducting an online survey on 'meaningful coincidences'. Please feel free to go and complete the survey. Thing is, our University's Public Relations agency had the rather ingenious idea of using social networking to get people to complete the survey. Yes, folks... that's Facebook to you and me! Aaagh! This means I have had to join a specially constructed Facebook group and invite all my "friends" to join too...

I just wanted to say sorry.

If you've got a young child then my guess is you'll hav esome kno

Slumdog a winner!

A good night last night for Danny Boyle and friends... Slumdog Millionaire won 8 of the 10 Oscars it was up for (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Music [Song], Best Music [Score], Best Film Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Cinematography, and Best Adapted Screenplay)!

Have you seen it yet?

The future of cubing?

Oh dear. Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should. They've just released a new Rubik's TouchCube. All the fun of the original Rubik's Cube but without any of the twisting and turning that actually made up much of the original fun! (See my earlier post that brings back memories of cubing as it should be...)

Still, with a price tage of $149.99, I think us 'purist' cubers are safe for a while.

15 Steps to Tyranny

This week I have watched a TV documentary called Five Steps to Tyranny three times. It is something we show to our first year psychology students as part of one of their seminars. As I take three separate seminar groups, I have sat through the film three times this week!

The film is a very useful introduction to how social psychologists explain how it only takes a few key ingredients to turn any one of us into someone who might inflict terrible harm to others. Step 1 is that from an early age we identify with various 'in-groups' of which we regard ourselves to be a member, and can contrast those with 'out-groups' of which we are not a member (i.e., 'us' and 'them'). Step 2 is that we readily obey orders, often without questioning them. More worryingly, perhaps, when there is an authority figure who asks us, or commands us, to do something that we might normally not want to do (Step 3: do 'them' harm) we will often follow the command especially if we feel that someone else will take responsibility. The eye-opening research conducted by Stanley Milgram in the 1960's revealed the extent to which this was the case. Around two thirds of people who participated in his studies of obedience (who thought they were taking part in research on the effects of punishment on learning) would go on to deliver electric shocks to a co-participant of 450 volts when told to do so by an experimenter. (The co-participant was actually a confederate of the experimenter who never received the shocks, but the real participant wasn't told this until after the experiment.) Experts in human behaviour had predicted beforehand that only a very small percentage would administer these shocks.

Step 4: 'stand up' or 'stand by' shows how many of us are far more likely to stand back and do nothing when we see somebody who might need our help. Combine this with step 1 and we are particularly reluctant to offer help to someone who we see as being in an 'out-group'. By the time we get to the final step, 'exterminate', we've reached the point there is every chance that members of a more powerful 'in-group' will seek to get completely rid of any 'out-groups'. It was the research of another psychologist, Philip Zimbardo, which demonstrated this so effectively. In his Stanford Prison Experiment he turned the basement of the Psychology Department at Stanford University into a prison. Male students were arbitrarily split into either 'prisoners' or 'guards' and asked to role-play these roles as part of the planned 14-day experiment. As it turned out, after just 6 days the guards had become sadistic and were treating the prisoners so badly the study had to be stopped.

It is through these 5 simple steps that, according to social psychologists, tyrannical regimes can emerge and be allowed to continue to exert their power.

Bummer.

The full documentary can be found here.

Better late than never

In October 1993, US stand-up Bill Hicks recorded a set for The Late Show with David Letterman. The set was never aired as the show's producers felt that Hicks' material was too controversial and might upset the TV network's sponsors. Bill Hicks died of pancreatic cancer (aged just 32) a few months later in February 1994. In the final months of his life, the fact that his stand-up routine had been cut from the show was of major concern to Hicks (and his fans).

Last month, the set was finally broadcast. Enjoy:

Hair cut

Today was my first day in work since getting my hair cut at the weekend. Not one person commented on it.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Hide and seek

This advert for the Ford Ka caught my attention in the first advert break tonight during Lost on Sky 1. There are supposed to be 80 Ka's hidden in the ad. Just love the idea and the song:



The clip above, from our friend YouTube isn't great quality. Clicking here will get you to the Ford Ka website for a much better quality version (click on the 'media' link), which you'll probably need if you want to be sad (like me) and make it full screen to see how many Ka's you can spot.

True love

True love is like ghosts,
which everybody talks about
and few have seen.

Francois De La Rochefoucauld

Happy Valentine's Day.

Unlucky for some

Today is Friday the 13th, the first of three this year. And it would seem that on Friday the 13th there really is an increased chance of being involved in an accident even though there is less traffic on the road. A study conducted in the early 1990's*, compared the number of traffic accident casualties admitted to hospital in the South West Thames region of England on Friday 13th's with the number of admissions on Friday 6th's during the same period. The researchers found that there were consistently more admissions on Friday 13th's than on Friday 6th's (a total of 65 in the period examined compared to 45, an increase of more than 50%). The difference was statistically significant.

The researchers did a similar comparison for the amount of traffic on the roads on these days (specifically certain sections of the M25 London orbital motorway). They found that there were actually a little over 1% fewer vehicles on the road on Friday 13th's compared to Friday 6th's.

If these data reflect a genuine difference between the two days, then maybe Friday the 13th really is an unlucky day! What I think it might reveal is that people's beliefs about Friday the 13th could become a rather neat example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is, a small percentage of people (around 1%) may be sufficiently superstitious about Friday the 13th being an unlucky day that they avoid driving (or at least motorway driving). Those drivers that still decide to get in their car may still be aware of the superstitions surrounding Friday the 13th and this may actually increase their fear and anxiety enough to affect their concentration while driving.

I stayed at home today.

*Scanlon, T. J., Luben, R. N., Scanlon, F. L., Singleton, N. (1993). Is Friday the 13th bad for your health? British Medical Journal, 307 (6919), 1584–1586.

Colour changing card trick

I have been meaning to link to this clip from YouTube for a while, and what with the recent references to Professor Wiseman and his blog, I thought it was now time...



Richard uploaded this short film to YouTube in April 2007. Since then clip has been viewed a staggering 2.9 million times (2,909,647 times at the time of writing to be precise)! In addition to it being a dramatic example of change blindness, the clip's remarkable success on YouTube also demonstrates how sometimes when you do something you can't always predict what will come from it. The last time Richard and I met, he told me that one consequence of him making this film and posting it on YouTube was that world-famous magic double-act Penn & Teller had seen it and it had inspired them to devise a whole new routine for their Las Vegas show!

Fluent

I would love to live
Like a river flows
Carried by the surprise
Of its own unfolding.

John O'Donohue 1956-2008

That's my girl

They say that the criminal always returns to the scene of the crime. Well it's true. Today we found ourselves back in the bookshop from which I, ahem, "stole" a book a couple of years ago. (I put the word stole in inverted commas there trying, unsuccessfully, to make it sound less wrong!) It was a book about cosmic ordering (which I've still not got round to writing about!), and I did eventually take the book back to pay for it, admittedly some months after I had originally taken it.

Today's purchase (yes, purchase... I paid for it) was a book by Susan Jeffers called Embracing Uncertainty (Mobius, 2003), a book that I thought might help me s I consider a career break. Dr Jeffers seems to be one of the more successful self-help authors, with over 20 books under her belt. Her best known contribution to the literature is her book Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway, a phrase that would now appear to be a registered trademark (and might even be taken by some to be condoning shoplifting! Or is it only me that reads it that way?). But you'll be pleased to learn that I did indeed pay for this book, along with the book of Rupert the Bear stories Rachel had chosen for Freya, who was being very good in her pushchair ("booky... booky!"). So, unlike my first visit to this shop, I was able to walk out proudly clutching my book complete with receipt!

As we walked through the shopping mall, Rachel turned to me and asked "Did you give her that?".

"Give her what?" I asked back.

"That...". I looked down at Freya in her pushchair as she looked innocently back up at me gently chewing on the end of a plastic container of Winnie the Pooh blowing bubbles. A plastic container of Winnie the Pooh blowing bubbles that she hadn't had a moment ago.

The irony didn't pass us by... but we did go back and pay for them.

O well...

I just had a quick look and it would seem that the article by Ben Sherwood for O, The Oprah Magazine is now published and is available here.

I don't even get a mention. O well...

Luck is no accident

A book arrived from Amazon this morning as a consequence of having looked at Richard Wiseman’s blog last week. One of his recent posts mentioned that the current issue of Newsweek included an article that featured his research on luck. The article was actually adapted from a new book written by Ben Sherwood called The Survivors Club: The Secrets and Science That Could Save Your Life (Grand Central Publishing, 2009). Ben had been the guy who had interviewed me about luck last year for an article for O, The Oprah magazine (I wonder if that is published yet?).

However, the book that arrived this morning isn’t the one by Ben Sherwood (though perhaps I should order that one too!). No, it’s actually a book I discovered by following the link Richard had included to another website, called Get Rich Slowly, that also referred to the Newsweek article but focused more on Richard's work. It was this website that linked to an earlier article (are you following this?) that reviewed a book called Luck is No Accident: Making the Most of Happenstance in Your Life and Career by John Krumboltz and Al Levin (Impact Publishers, 2004). It was this book that I ordered from Amazon and which arrived this morning. The message of the book is very similar to that of Richard’s book The Luck Factor (2004, Arrow Books), although the focus here is on making the most of unplanned events.

Unintended consequences

Imagine you're on a flight. You've read the in-flight magazine, savoured the remaining crumbs of an exquisite in-flight meal, and about to relax for a restful in-flight nap. However, you're jolted from your reverie by an announcement from the pilot saying there are problems and he's going to have to "take the pane down" (that's crash-land to you and me). As the plane takes a dive, oxygen masks make a sudden appearance from above your head and you begin to wish you'd paid more attention to the cabin crew when they were talking you through all this stuff as you were taxiing.

It's Groundhog Day!*

Every year, on February 2nd, the world's media (or rather a small proportion of it) turns its attention to the small town of Punxsutawney in Pennsylvania, USA. In particular they go there to observe a character called Punxsutawney Phil. Phil is a groundhog. But not just any groundhog... Phil is a special groundhog, because legend has it he has an uncanny ability to predict how long winter is going to last. According to his very own website, http://www.punxsutawneyphil.com/:

"At sunrise, Phil will emerge from his burrow at Gobbler's Knob, and his handlers will announce whether or not Phil has seen his shadow. If Phil sees his shadow, legend has it that we can expect six more weeks of winter weather. No shadow indicates an early spring."

Back in 2001, one guy, an economist, even undertook some kind of analysis of Phil's forecasting data and concluded that over the years he had been around 70% successful and predicting either an early or late Spring.

That's all very well, but the thing that actually interests me about this rather strange tradition is the 1993 movie Groundhog Day that's based around this rather quaint annual event. In the film Bill Murray plays TV weather forecaster Phil Connors who is assigned to cover the event for something like the third or fourth year running. Connors is, to say the least, fairly cynical about the whole thing and can't wait till the piece is done so he can get the hell out of Punxsutawney and back to civilization. The trouble is, a blizzard means that all routes out of Punxsutawney are blocked and so he has to stay there for a second night. The next morning he is woken up at 6am, just like the morning before, by the same song on the radio (Sonny and Cher's I Got You Babe). He initially thinks that the local radio presenters must have simply forgotten to change the script from the previous morning, but slowly as he goes about his day he realizes that he is actually living the previous day again. It's still Groundhog Day! Eventually the end of the day comes again and he's back in his hotel bed (because just as with the previous day a blizzard prevents him from leaving town). At 6am the next morning he wakes again to the same song on the radio! And so it goes on... every morning he awakes only to relive Groundhog Day. Imagine that! Imagine having to live the same day over and over and over again. Once the realization sets in that no matter what he does, Phil Connors is going to relive the same day again and again he even tries a variety of ways of killing himself... only to find himself waking up at 6am on Groundhog Day to the sound of I Got You Babe. There's no way out.

Eventually Connors resigns himself to the fact he is going to have to relive Groundhog Day ad infinitum, and so starts throwing himself into his recurrent daily activities. By doing this he finds he actually enjoys having the opportunity to relive the events of the day again and again and discovers that he can learn from his earlier encounters with the day's events. The question is, will he ever live to see the day that follows Groundhog Day or is he destined to remain in this day for ever? And do you ever get that feeling you've been here before?

*Is this joke beginning to wear thin now?

It's Groundhog Day!

Every year, on February 2nd, the world's media (or rather a small proportion of it) turns its attention to the small town of Punxsutawney in Pennsylvania, USA. In particular they go there to observe a character called Punxsutawney Phil. Phil is a groundhog. But not just any groundhog... Phil is a special groundhog, because legend has it he has an uncanny ability to predict how long winter is going to last. According to his very own website, http://www.punxsutawneyphil.com/:

"At sunrise, Phil will emerge from his burrow at Gobbler's Knob, and his handlers will announce whether or not Phil has seen his shadow. If Phil sees his shadow, legend has it that we can expect six more weeks of winter weather. No shadow indicates an early spring."

Back in 2001, one guy, an economist, even undertook some kind of analysis of Phil's forecasting data and concluded that over the years he had been around 70% successful and predicting either an early or late Spring.

That's all very well, but the thing that actually interests me about this rather strange tradition is the 1993 movie Groundhog Day that's based around this rather quaint annual event. In the film Bill Murray plays TV weather forecaster Phil Connors who is assigned to cover the event for something like the third or fourth year running. Connors is, to say the least, fairly cynical about the whole thing and can't wait till the piece is done so he can get the hell out of Punxsutawney and back to civilization. The trouble is, a blizzard means that all routes out of Punxsutawney are blocked and so he has to stay there for a second night. The next morning he is woken up at 6am, just like the morning before, by the same song on the radio (Sonny and Cher's I Got You Babe). He initially thinks that the local radio presenters must have simply forgotten to change the script from the previous morning, but slowly as he goes about his day he realizes that he is actually living the previous day again. It's still Groundhog Day! Eventually the end of the day comes again and he's back in his hotel bed (because just as with the previous day a blizzard prevents him from leaving town). At 6am the next morning he wakes again to the same song on the radio! And so it goes on... every morning he awakes only to relive Groundhog Day. Imagine that! Imagine having to live the same day over and over and over again. Once the realization sets in that no matter what he does, Phil Connors is going to relive the same day again and again he even tries a variety of ways of killing himself... only to find himself waking up at 6am on Groundhog Day to the sound of I Got You Babe. There's no way out.

Eventually Connors resigns himself to the fact he is going to have to relive Groundhog Day ad infinitum, and so starts throwing himself into his recurrent daily activities. By doing this he finds he actually enjoys having the opportunity to relive the events of the day again and again and discovers that he can learn from his earlier encounters with the day's events. The question is, will he ever live to see the day that follows Groundhog Day or is he destined to remain in this day for ever? And do you ever get that feeling you've been here before?

A wise man?

The final card of my reading spoke of advice from some kind of 'authority figure' and indicated that I could be about to embark on a new course of learning:

The Hierophant: It is time to take sound advice from someone you trust. The Hierophant often reveals an authority figure, such as a father, teacher, or other mentor. He symbolizes practical wisdom, so his influence can help you resolve a challenge. This card also denotes a spiritual dimension, so it can indicate that you are about to embark on a new course of learning that will bring you closer to your soul's purpose.

One of the original reasons we had arranged to go down to Rachel's parents this weekend was because there was a possibility that we might attend a Beginners' Psychic Development Workshop down that way today (well, if I'm gonna learn tarot I should also try and develop my psychic awareness, don't you think?). If that had worked out, that could have been a been a nice hit for the tarot. But. alas, it didn't happen: There were no spaces. You thought I was going to say it was cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances didn't you? Now come on, you know me better than that.

As it turned out we didn't really do much (didn't dare walk the dogs!), other than eat lots of lovely food expertly cooked by Rachel's dad before driving back home in time to watch Lost. In an idle moment on the internet I did have a read of Richard Wiseman's blog, and I would regard Richard as one of my mentors what with him being my PhD supervisor an' all. Richard has only just taken to blogging this month but a few days ago his blog was apparently already in the top 50 on Wordpress! Bloody smartarse. Or is there a lesson to be learnt here?

Bitch on heat

Today's card, the Ten of Swords, was supposed to predict endings:

Ten of Swords: The Ten indicates endings. In the suit of Swords, endings are dramatic, and may be shocking. However, on closer inspection of the facts, it's likely that this ending was predictable. A relationship or other arrangement is cut out of your life. The closure is harsh, but necessary; you will recover and be open to new opportunities sooner than you think.

Couldn't really find anything today that could relate to this. No endings, dramatic or otherwise. The only drama was when we were taking Rachel's parents' dogs, Daisy and Harry, for a walk in Shotover Park near where they live. We let them off their leads to let them have a run and explore the woods. Shotover seems to be popular with dogs and dog-walkers of all shapes and sizes, so it's a case of keeping a watchful eye as dogs greet each other in the way only dogs know how. Now, I'm not a dog-owner nor have I ever been (though I am an enthusiastic walker of Daisy and Harry when we visit and I can imagine maybe having a dog at some point in the future) so I'm not au fait with the etiquette between dog owners as one's dogs sniff the backsides of other dogs as they hello. I tended to opt for a facial expression that tries to convey the "that's dogs for you..." look. And, by and large, I think I achieved the look. This expression seemed to be serving me well right up until the point when Daisy was about to be humped by not one, not two, but three over-excited setters. The "that's dogs for you..." facial expression was quickly replaced by one of mild panic as I yelled out "Noooo!!" and reached to put the lead round Daisy's neck. Freya just peered out at me from her pushchair as if to say "spoilsport".